The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
Hello friends, do you know that most of us take the most important decisions of our lives without thinking, understanding and knowingly, just by imitating habits, emotions and the crowd. Sometimes we feel that we are controlling our own way of thinking. But the truth is that there are dozens of mental traps hidden behind our thinking that silently spoil our decisions, and we do not even know.
We have brought a powerful and heart-wrenching book summary of The Art of Thinking Clearly. This is not just a book but a key to make your thinking clear, sharp and intelligent.
You will know why most people make wrong decisions just by looking at the stories of successful people. Why our mind repeats the same mistakes every time and how you can avoid these traps. After reading this summary, you will be able to clear the glasses of your thinking through which you see this world.
Chapter One Survivorship Bias It was a dark night.
The stars were shining in the sky but some people were sitting on the ground with such dreams in their eyes which are not in everyone's destiny. Those dreams of success, fame, wealth. Some people were watching success stories on YouTube with a cup of tea.
Someone's eyes were shining like Elon Musk. Someone was thinking of becoming like Steve Jobs and someone had only one question in his heart. If these people can do it then why can't I? But have you ever thought what happened to those thousands and millions of people who walked on the same path. But got lost somewhere, whose names no one knows today, whose story was never told in any TED Talk. From there, such a mental deception is born which shakes our way of thinking from the root.
It is called Survivorship Bias. You must have noticed that whenever we see a successful person, we pay attention to his hard work, dedication and ability. But we forget those countless people who did the same. Maybe even more than that. But today their names are nowhere to be seen. Why? Because we can only see those who survived. Just like in a battlefield, we can only see those soldiers who return. We learn from their stories.
We take inspiration from their medals. But those who never returned, their stories get buried in history. Now listen to a story. During the Second World War, the US Air Force ran a mission. They studied those bombers that had returned safely from the war.
There were bullet marks on every plane and the engineers were deciding that the next time, those parts should be strengthened where the bullets hit. But then a quiet voice came. No. We should strengthen those parts where the bullets did not hit. Everyone was shocked. Why? Because the planes that returned survived despite the bullets. But those that did not return, probably had bullets in those parts that seemed untouched till now.
This means that we should not take decisions only by looking at those who survived. Otherwise we think in the wrong direction. Now just think how many times have you seen the story of a successful Uber who told that I left college, made videos for a year and today I have an empire worth crores.
And you also thought that I should also do the same. But did you see what happened to those thousands of people who left college, made videos and then kept begging for a job. This illusion is called survivorship bias. You go to the gym and watch a transformation video.
A boy has made a six pack in 6 months. You think I can do it too. But no one tells the story of those 100 boys who gave up in 3 months and sat at home because there was no progress. Because their story was not inspiring for YouTube. Actually the world is used to only winners. But the silence of those who lose contains the truth which we do not want to hear. Now imagine if you want to write a book and think that JK Rowling also faced rejection and then became the world's greatest writer, then I can also become one.
This thinking is inspiring. But incomplete. You have not seen those thousands of writers whose books were never published. Whose stories no one wants to know. Survivorship bias does not take our dreams into darkness but shows us a false light. Due to which we stumble.
In this world, behind the story of every successful person, there are hundreds of incomplete stories hidden. We should learn, we should understand. But blindly imitating someone can be the most dangerous mistake. Sometimes the biggest lesson is found in the silence of the losers and not in the shine of the winners.
So the next time you are inspired by someone's success, stop for a moment and think. Am I able to see the whole picture or am I just seeing those faces who are on the stage. While behind the stage hundreds of anonymous faces are screaming. We also walked the same path.
Think whether you would also like to join those anonymous faces who just become the shadow of a story or you would like to be like that person who chooses his own path after thinking carefully and seeing the whole truth. Now the decision is yours friends, if you are new to this channel and have not yet subscribed to the channel, then do it now.
Chapter 2: Confirmation Bias
It is 8:00 am You picked up your mobile, opened Instagram and there was a post. Follow your dreams. College doesn't teach you anything. You immediately liked it and a voice came in your mind. See, what I was thinking is right. After some time you saw a video on YouTube. A boy was saying.
I left school and built a company worth crores in 3 years. And you smiled again as if someone has given a green signal to your thinking. But have you ever realized that you believe only those things that are already sitting in your mind and the rest of the things are those which should be heard and learned from.
You just ignore them. From here starts a very deep and dangerous mental mistake called confirmation bias. This is the silent game that happens in our mind every day. Without making any noise, without telling and we are losing in it every day. Only because we believe only our thoughts to be true. Now think, if you believe that you are lucky then you will see your luck in every small thing. I found some path empty. See how lucky I am.
But the day something goes wrong, you will say that maybe today is a bad day. You never think that your thinking forced you to see what you wanted to see. A person gets the most happiness when he hears that you were right. And the most pain is when someone says you are wrong.
To avoid this pain, we close our eyes and confirmation bias becomes a safe blanket for us. Suppose you have decided that investing money in the stock market is stupid. Now you will search for every news where people have lost money.
You will find the words of investors like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala nonsense. You will always search for the same examples that prove your thinking right. Now just think whether you want to learn or only want to hear what you already know. Confirmation bias imprisons us in the prison of our own thoughts.
A prison whose walls are not visible but whose grip is the strongest. Listen to a story. Two friends lived in a city. Ajay and Vijay. Ajay believed that the world is very bad. People pretend to be good only for their own benefit. And Vijay thought that there is still goodness left in the world.
You just need a point of view. When Ajay went to the market and someone pushed him, he said, see how bad people have become. And when Vijay went to the market and someone gave him way, he said, look, humanity is still alive. What was the truth? The market was the same. People were the same.
The only difference was the point of view. Confirmation bias made the thinking of both of them feel the same as they already thought. The more dangerous thing is that confirmation bias does not come alone. It brings with it ego, anger and the worst thing is ignorance. We follow only those people on social media who think like us.
We like only those videos that confirm our thoughts and then gradually we get trapped in that mono chamber where everyone repeats what we say and we feel that the whole world thinks like us. But in reality we are not seeing the world.
We are only seeing our own reflection and when someone speaks differently from our thoughts, we disconnect them, unfollow them, block them. Why? Because we are not used to listening to what makes us uncomfortable. We only like to listen to what strengthens our inner beliefs. But it is important to stop here.
If you really want to become wise, then you will have to confront those thoughts which are contrary to your thinking. Because true knowledge is born where there is opposition. Where there is conflict. Where there is humility like I can also be wrong. Confirmation bias is a sweet poison.
It gives us immediate relief. But gradually it makes our thinking narrow, arrogant and weak. So the next time you watch a video, read a news or listen to someone, stop for a moment and ask yourself. Am I believing this because it is true or just because I want it to be true. This question can be the beginning of clearing your thinking.
Chapter Three: Social Proof.
One afternoon you are roaming alone on the streets of a new city. You are feeling hungry. There is a plethora of restaurants all around. One shop is completely empty, shining. But there is no one inside. And at some distance there is a small Dhaba. There is a crowd. People are standing outside and waiting. Without thinking much, you head straight to that dhaba.
Why? Because we think that if so many people are going there, then that place must be good. This is the mental trap that traps us all so many times a day. Social proof. The biggest strength of us humans is to live in society. And this is also our biggest weakness.
When we are unable to decide for ourselves what is right, then we start looking at others and from there our thinking starts getting lost in the crowd of others. Imagine a building has caught fire. If four people are running, then without seeing the fire, the rest of the people will also run. But if everyone is standing quietly, then maybe you too will think that nothing has happened.
Even if there is smoke inside. Now you will say that this is an emergency situation. Let's take a simple example. You are searching for a video on YouTube. There are two videos with similar titles. One has 2 lakh views. The other has 300. Without thinking, you click on the first one. Why? Because your mind said that if so many people are watching it, then it must be better. We call it logic.
But the truth is that every day we start believing that whatever most people are doing is right. Even if it is a mistake. Like following a stupid trend, investing in a stock without understanding, spreading lies in the name of religion or politics. Just because everyone else is doing it. A story comes to mind. A man was standing on the main road of the city and looking up at the sky. Initially people laughed but after a while more people came and stood there. They also started looking up.
Then some people started turning their necks up and turning on the mobile camera. No one asked. What is happening? Everyone believed. There must be something. This is social proof which does not let us think but only shows that there is no need to think. Do what others are doing.
Now think how many times you have bought goods from a shop after seeing the crowd. How many times have you bought a product without reading the review just by seeing the pipe stars or how many times you liked a reel just because it had millions of likes. Social proof takes away our confidence in ourselves and gradually we start determining our identity from the crowd of others.
Have you ever noticed when a celebrity wears something it becomes a fashion. Even if the clothes are weird or mismatched but people start adopting it. Why? Because if he can do it then maybe I should also do it. This mindset becomes dangerous when we consider social proof as a guide even in the big decisions of life.
Which career to choose, where to get married, which lifestyle to adopt, our fear of looking different, our fear of being proved wrong and our greed for validation. These three make social proof more powerful. But the crowd is not always right. Even before the sinking of Titanic, people were dancing and they were all feeling relieved after seeing each other.
No one went and saw for themselves how big the iceberg was and when they saw it, it was too late. Social proof does not mean that you walk alone. But it definitely means that whenever you take a decision, sleep.
Am I doing this after thinking on my own or just because everybody else is doing it because if you don't think for yourself then somebody else will think for you and then your life will be lost in the crowd of others. Now stop for a moment and look at your decisions of today again.
Was there any decision among them that was taken just because everybody else was doing the same? If yes then change it from today because a true thinker is the one who keeps his thinking alive even in the crowd.
Chapter Four: The Cost Fallacy
Imagine you are in a movie theatre. You have bought a ticket for ₹300. The movie starts and within the first 15 minutes you start thinking that this movie is rubbish. But still you don't get up and go out. Why? Because there is a voice in your mind that says, I have paid ₹300. Now I have to watch the whole movie.
This is where a mental deception is born that looks very sensible but inside it keeps binding us to wrong decisions. Its name is Sunk Cost Fallacy. Many times we are in a relationship that has broken, in which there is no warmth left, neither wisdom. But still we stay because we have given years to it. We have put in our emotions, our hard work, our hopes, everything.
We think that we have given so much. Now it would be foolish to leave. But the truth is that staying there is the real foolishness. Have you ever spent months on a project and then you understand that it will not work. But still you are not able to leave it. Why? Because you have already spent so much time and energy on it that backing out now seems like a defeat of ego.
But have you thought that the time, money, hard work that you have already spent will never come back. It has become a sink. Like a ship sunk in water that will never rise again. And if you keep causing more damage in the name of that, then that damage will only get bigger. Once upon a time.
A man was passing through the desert. His camel died. But he had so much luggage that he was unable to think. What to leave and what to take with him. He was attached to everything. Every load was bought with his money. He kept moving forward. He did not leave the luggage.
And after a few kilometers, he died of dehydration. If he had left the unnecessary burden earlier, then perhaps he would have been alive today. We also do the same. In our decisions, in our relationships, in our career. We think that I have studied in this college for 3 years. Now I will leave only after getting a degree. Whether that course is killing your soul or I have invested millions in this business.
If I quit now, everything will go to waste. But just stop and think. Will you continue walking on the same path that leads only to darkness? Just because you have lost a lot in walking on that path till now.
Will you hand over your future to the same mistake that has been made in the past. Sunk cost fallacy makes us feel guilty that if we step back now, then everything will go to waste. But what has been wasted has already happened.
Now there is a need to save yourself, to change the path ahead. The truth is that bravery is when you accept that I made a mistake and then turn back from that path because from there a new beginning starts. From there real intelligence is recognized. So the next time you hear yourself saying that now a lot of money has been spent. Now we should not leave. So definitely ask yourself a question.
Am I avoiding future losses or am I just trying to justify past losses? If you answer honestly, perhaps the direction of your life will change forever.
Chapter Five: Handside Bias It is one afternoon
It was raining. Outside the window, drops of water were continuously falling on the glass. Friends sitting in the room were drinking tea and a big match was going on on TV. Last over, last ball and then a four was hit. The team won. One friend said, I had already told you that this player would win the match. The other one smiled and asked, “Where were you when?” The first one said, “Friend, I already knew it. I had an idea about it.
It was obvious. But the truth was that she did not say anything like that. She also did not know what was going to happen. This is side bias. An illusion that everyone has at some point or the other and the most dangerous thing is that we do not even realize it. We think that I already felt that this was going to happen.
But we know the truth only later and start fitting that information in our past experience. We assume that we already knew, whereas in reality we did not know. We were as ignorant at that time as anyone else. To understand this, listen to another story. A girl was doing MBA.
She got two job offers. One from a big company and one from a startup. Everyone told her that the big company is safe. Join that. But she took a risk and joined the startup. After 2 years that startup became a unicorn and that girl became the owner of crores. Now the same people say that we knew that this girl would make a splash somewhere.
But 2 years ago the same people were calling her crazy. Why? Because the result is already out. And when the result is out, our mind very cleverly gives a new form to the story behind it. As if everything was already decided. Handsight bias. It makes our mind wear the glasses of deception due to which we start overestimating our own understanding.
We think I was already smart. I knew everything. But when the same thing is happening, we too are struggling with fear, doubt and confusion. This bias harms us the most when we try to learn. If we think that we knew everything beforehand, then we cannot learn anything new. We consider every mistake as obvious. Whereas in reality it was not obvious.
It is just clearly visible on the hand side. Imagine a stock fell. We say it was bound to fall. This was known beforehand. But when the same stock was rising two days ago, no one was saying anything. Now it will fall. If an accident happens, we say accidents have happened on this road before as well. Why didn't anyone pay attention? We look at history as if it was a straight line whose direction was already decided. But the reality is that the future is always blurred. It has uncertainty, fear, confusion.
And a person who believes that he knew everything, can neither learn from himself nor from others. Hindsight bias not only affects our way of thinking but it also kills our understanding of the mistakes of others. We say that he took a wrong decision when it was clear that it would happen.
But was his path really so clear when that person was standing at that turn? Everyone is walking in the dark in his timeline. We see the path only when we look back. Therefore, true wisdom is when we are able to look at our old thinking honestly and not color it with our today's knowledge.
So the next time you say I knew it beforehand, stop for a moment and ask yourself, is it really true or is it just my mind trying to make me win? Because the person who accepts that he was not always right, becomes the wisest in the future.
Chapter Six Loss Version
There was a man. His name was Rohan. Everything was going well in his life. A steady job, family, savings and a simple dream of opening his own shop. For years he was saving money. He was doing research. He was making plans. And when finally the day came when he could start his dream, he decided to stop.
Why? Because if the shop did not work, then all the savings would be lost, and if people did not like it, then his mind was thinking only one thing again and again.
What if I lose it? This is where a very deep mental trap is born. Loss aversion. We humans feel more fear of losing something than the happiness of getting it. And this fear often keeps us away from the biggest possibilities of our life. Rohan is not alone. We all stand at a crossroad at some time where there are two paths.
One that can give us a lot and the other that can protect us from loss. And most of the times we go on the path that seems safe. Even if it leads us nowhere. Imagine someone told you to flip a coin. If heads come, you will get Rs. 100. But if tails comes, you will have to pay Rs. 500.
What will your mind say? Most people will refuse. Because the fear of losing seems to be more than the hope of winning. The joy of earning Rs. 1000 seems to fade in front of the fear of losing Rs. 1000. This is the loss version, the psychological power that binds our decisions around fear.
Even when a child loses in a game, he feels that defeat for days. But if the same child wins, the happiness lasts only for a few minutes. Why? Because our brain sees loss as a threat. It makes us feel insecure and the deepest biological programming of a human being is to protect himself. But this is where the biggest question arises.
Should we step back from our dreams just because we might lose something? If before doing every big work we only thought that if there is a loss then nothing new can be created in the world. No writer writes a book. No businessman starts. No one falls in love. If we make loss the guide of life.
But here another truth is hidden. We are not afraid of every loss. We are afraid only of special losses which shake our identity, break our respect or hurt our ego. Imagine someone stays in his toxic relationship because if that relationship breaks then what will people say or because we have given so many years and if we leave now then everything will go waste.
We do not leave things because we have spent a lot in getting them. The version of emotion, money, identity, loss is so deeply embedded in our memories that we remain tied to the investment of the past instead of the possibility of the future.
But if you accept every fear as true then you will never be able to move forward. To understand the loss version and rise above it, we have to ask ourselves a simple question. Am I backing out from this decision because it is not right or just because I am afraid of loss? If you answer honestly, you will understand that most of the times you are afraid to open that door behind which your whole life is waiting for you. So next time when life gives you an opportunity, do not back out just thinking this.
If I lose, then sometimes also think what if I lose this opportunity because the real loss is not what we have and goes away. The real loss is what could have come to us. But due to fear we did not accept it. From the chapter Hello Effect. A girl enters the class on the first day of college. Her face is calm. She is well dressed. There is confidence in her walk.
The smile is gentle. The rest of the students in the class start liking her at first sight. Someone thinks that she must be a topper. Someone says that she looks very cultured. Some boys start considering her smart, sincere and intelligent. Just from the first glance. But no one knows that she is average in studies.
She is dealing with broken relationships at home and has come to college to find herself again. Now think, why was all this assumed just from her face, gait and smile? This is the halo effect. An illusion that distracts our thinking from the truth hidden behind a beautiful mask.
The halo effect means that if we like one quality of a person, we assume that all his other qualities will also be equally good. If someone has a good look, we assume that he will also be sensible, honest and hardworking. If someone's English is excellent, we think that he must be very intelligent.
If someone's social media profile is aesthetic, we think that he must be living a happy life. But what is the truth? It is possible that the same beautiful face is exploiting others. The same person with a polished accent insults you behind your back and the same perfect looking life is completely empty from inside. The halo effect is a kind of mental shortcut.
Our mind does not want to work hard to know the whole truth. He wants to make quick decisions and if he sees something good, he assumes everything else to be the same. In an interview, if the candidate is smartly dressed, smiling well and speaking confidently, the interviewer often assumes that he will be perfect for the job.
Even if his skills are average. If the packaging of a product is strong, people buy it without reading the ingredients. Because after seeing the packaging, the mind says, this thing must be good.
The halo effect does not fool us. We fool ourselves. Now think how many times have you liked someone just because he looked good or decided that he was trustworthy in the very first meeting. Just because there was innocence in his eyes. We humans like labels.
We want to categorize things quickly. This is good, this is bad, this is capable, this is useless. But a human being cannot be defined by a single quality. Goodness does not drip from one face and evil does not always come in dirty clothes. The biggest disadvantage of the halo effect is this.
We get impressed by one quality of someone and ignore his flaws. Once upon a time, a new teacher came to a school. Sharp looking, accent, brilliant, his talks were captivating. In the first week itself, the children, parents and the rest of the staff started liking him. But gradually it started becoming clear that he ignores the doubts of the children.
He remains disconnected from the real needs of the class. But even then people said, no, he is a very good teacher. He has so much skin. That skin which was covering the truth. The trap of halo effect is dangerous not only for others but also for us.
If someone calls us smart once, we assume that we are smart in everything. And when someone points out our mistake, we feel bad. Ego gets hurt. Why? Because we have tied ourselves in an image and when someone breaks that image, we start fearing ourselves.
So the next time you make a decision about someone after seeing or hearing him, stop for a moment. Think, do I know this person completely or am I so impressed by just one thing of his that I am adding all the other qualities myself Because not everything that glitters is gold and not every smiling face is happy.
Conclusion:
Have you ever noticed that we keep making decisions throughout the day. Small, big, important, unnecessary. But the real story behind these decisions is hidden in the way we think. The Art of Thinking Clearly is not just a book. It is a mirror that shows us the mental mistakes hidden within us that we repeat every day and inadvertently harm ourselves.
Whether it is the survivorship bias that shows us only the stories of winners or the confirmation bias that forces us to listen to what we already believe or the loss aversion that makes us stay away from our dreams due to fear, all these biases have one thing in common, they quietly hollow out our thinking power from within and until we realize them, we keep thinking that we are thinking very well. Whereas in reality we are living in an illusion. But this book has given us the key with which we can open the real root of our thinking.
Now the next time you take a decision, think with awareness and not just with your mind because clear thinking is that which rises above bias and can see the truth with an open heart and an open mind. Clarity will come in your life only when you learn to question your own thinking.
Take a question with you. How clearly am I able to see my thinking. If this question has stirred something inside you, then understand that you have not read the book. You have read yourself. Do share your opinion in the comments and to reach the depth of such life-changing books.
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